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House prices in surprise pick-up, but consumers not so sure 02 November 2011

House prices appeared to pick up a surprise 0.4% in October, Nationwide has reported, bringing them 0.8% higher than they were a year go, to average £165,650.

The claim of a slight rise was wrapped around in the usual smoke and mirror mysteries of 'seasonal adjustment'. The nature of the rise was  challenged by those who spotted that in fact Nationwide appeared to be reporting a house dip in average prices, from £166,256 for September. (See one of our sharp-eyed bloggers, Rantrave, below.)

So, was it a 0.4% fall or a 0.4% rise? A spokeswoman for Nationwide said this morning: "The monthly index is seasonally adjusted, however the average price isn’t and this accounts for the differing figures."  Nope, we don't understand that either.

However, for those with degrees in advanced mathematics, speciality in statistical analysis, all is explained (?) here:

 http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/Nationwide_HPI_Methodology.pdf

Unsurprisingly, perhaps Nationwide which bases its data on its own mortgage approvals, warned that, whilst the 'rise' was welcome news, the outlook remains uncertain.

Nationwide also said that house prices were very patchy, with the more affluent areas around the country performing better than more hard-pressed areas, where transactions have fallen.

The uncertainty seems to manifest itself in the deeply polarised views on the housing market shown in another new report.

This finds that people are almost evenly split as to whether property prices will go up or down, or stay the same.

However, just over half (53%) of consumers consider that it is currently a buyer’s market and 80% of owner-occupiers think the next 12 months would be a bad time to sell.

According to the new ‘confidence’ tracker report published by Halifax, 30% think house prices will go down over the next year, 28% believe they will go up, and 27% think they will be unchanged in 12 months’ time.

Those who do expect a house price rise expect it to be modest, at up to 5%. Similarly, those expecting a fall expect it to be a drop of 5%.

The most positive people about house prices are, not surprisingly, in London and southern England, while those in Scotland are the most pessimistic.

The survey also shows that 66% of adults believe that private rents will rise over the next 12 months. Only 3% think they will fall.

The Halifax report is based on surveys of nearly 2,000 adults undertaken by Ipsos Mori between October 7 and 13.

 

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